Okay, so I was going to go through this player by player, http://chicago.cubs.mlb.com/team/roster_40man.jsp?c_id=chc, but it started to make me queasy just looking at all the rostered players on the same page. I don’t know if I can stomach it all at once, so I’ll just stick to some small bites, and tackle this beast a little bit at a time. At the end of the day, the Cubs have basically already had a successful 2012 before even stepping on the field – their bad contracts are all going to get one year further towards ending, and they have a team president in Theo Epstein that will ensure that sensible, winning baseball will be part of the team culture for the first time ever. Gone are the days of old, grizzled baseball morons running the show like a country club – and gone are the days where winning is a nice-to-have, instead of a philosophy.
Pitching
Samardjiza, John Gaub, Casey Coleman, Paul Maholm - this isn’t a list of guys that the Cubs have seen enough of apparently. These guys are all still on the 40-man going into spring training. It shows the lack of depth right now in the Cubs’ minor league system that some of these names have been able to kick around this long. If the Cubs are going to do anything this season, none of these guys can contribute in any meaningful way whatsoever other than catch bullpens or shag BP.
Kerry Wood is back. Randy Wells is back. Ryan Dempster is back. The Cubs need them each to have one more good year left in them to give this staff some stability. Newcomers Travis Wood and Chris Volstad are both very promising, but time will tell as Cubs’ young talent has tended to disappoint more than surprise over 100 years. It’s likely that regime change will alter that course over time, however. Is Matt Garza ever going to put it together for a full season? Is he a legit #1?
My take is that Garza could win a Cy Young. Dempster could have one more year in him, and Kerry Wood could help mentor Travis, Chris and another young arm as they become a pretty decent staff. Volstad could do very well in a weakened NL Central. What will happen? Probably one or two of these things, not all of them.
Infield
Geovany Soto has a decision to make this year – he either loves baseball, or he loves smoking pot, drinking, and swinging early in the count. What’s been even more sad about him isn’t that he kept his torrid offensive pace up from his first full year, but that his defense doesn’t appear to be maturing much at all. It’s a big year for Soto. If he doesn’t pull it back together like he’s capable, I think Chicago should begin thinking about another long term solution behind the plate in 2013.
Darwin Barney has really been a lucky break for the organization – no way did they see him as being their every day second baseman when they drafted him. His ability to put the ball in play and be a steady glove guy allows the Cubs to be about 3-4 games better per year than they’d be without him. More guys like Barney, who can hit great pitching as well as he hits poor pitching, would go a long way. Starlin Castro could be a star, but we will see. Expect him to make huge strides at the plate, with routine plays, and with his attitude. If not, expect Theo to trade him while the value is still through the roof. Cubs fans will be happy to see Josh Vitters on the 40-man roster to start the season. Don’t get too excited, though, his jersey # is 61.
As for the other guys, Stewart is a guy, Baker is wildly overrated, and he’s not really even rated high. No one’s best trait can be “hit’s opposite armed fastballs really well”, that should be a prerequisite to being on the roster, not your selling point. Is there any wildcard here? I’d say it’s Adrian Cardenas – a low risk flyer that could be a huge find if he pans out, and someone no one says boo about 6 months from now if he does nothing.
Outfielders
The most all-around talent in your outfield is David DeJesus, a fun guy and a good ballplayer. The only problem is – where does he hit in this lineup? The Cubs are pretty full of guys who you could see succeeding in the 2, 6, 7 or 8 spots. Is DeJesus supposed to hit leadoff? 5th? His speed and left handed bat likely put him somewhere near the top, but it’s probably asking a bit too much.
Marlon Byrd is a good guy to have, and one of the only good contracts the old regime ever signed. The big problem out here obviously is that you have a left fielder in Alfonso Soriano that costs you more games on defense than he can win you on offense, and even if he wins you some on offense, he cannot help you against a moderately above average pitcher or better because of his horrifically long, slow swing. If it’s so bad, why keep him in? There’s 21 million reasons, and it also doesn’t help that you really don’t have anyone else whose well acquainted with the 20 HR mark. It’s going to be tough to take a lot of pitches and work counts as a lineup when no one in the order threatens to take you deep.
As for the other guys, Johnson, Campana and others – it’s actually a good mix for situational substitutions. It might be MLB’s best situational substitution duo, if defense, bunting or stolen bases are what you need at the end of the game. You do have to be winning or close at the end of the game to need those things, however, and that’s really the challenge in finding value in these guys.
Overall
What a weak division! What a huge win for Cubs fans. Getting Theo & company to start from scratch is the best thing that’s happened to this organization in a long time. Can this pitching staff be good enough to keep the Cubs in the race in 2012? Actually, they can. It’s tough to imagine any of these NL Central teams running away with anything. That being said, that same staff could underwhelm significantly. I’d say Dempster is a 50% chance of being done for good – his constantly crazy-wildness isn’t a fluke, it’s a trend. Garza can’t seem to buy a break, and he doesn’t make many of his own. Is Travis Wood the best big thing? We will see. There’s a lot of knowns in this lineup, however, and there’s just no way that this team is any better than barely above average on offense. If Soto tanks again, it could get ugly. The Cubs will basically win 0 games because of great defense. Byrd, Barney – you guys are going to need to share some pointers during infield-outfield drills, because everyone around you is still pretty bad with the glove. Good luck Cubbies – go get ‘em in 2013.
Forecast: 78-84, 3rd place.
