Greetings from the cold north! I don’t think I could be any more ready for spring training, warm weather, and baseball.
I wanted to share this great research published as part of the Sloan Sports Conference.
The study follows over 1 million called pitches from almost all the active MLB umpires, uses pitch f/x data to compare umpires’ strike zones on called pitches as compared to the actual measured location of each pitch. The point of doing this is to see if an umpire’s strike zone is affected by game situations – is it harder to get a called third strike than a second strike? Does the strike zone expand on a 3-0 count? Does call urgency (play in motion) affect an umpire’s decision in any way?
The results are fascinating, and confirm a lot of conventional wisdom but also expose some nuances that are particularly informative. These include:
1) Umpires are wildly biased against calling the 3rd strike
2) Umpires do not like to call two strikes in a row.
3) Umpires are not more inclined to call a strike for pitchers throwing balls.
All in all, umpires aren’t trying to be biased but they certainly are. Though this study is of MLB umpires, I’m sure you can agree that the tendencies exposed in this study are visible throughout all levels of baseball.
Like it or not, an umpire is inclined to call the game to encourage the hitter to put the ball in play. It might be subconscious, but it’s definitive.
More news & posts as spring training arrives!
